Risk Guide
Enter your capital and risk appetite, this tool uses the last 90 days of live ByKaranteli statistics to suggest a position size via a sub-Kelly fraction (half/quarter). Most competitors skip this entirely; those who try hide the formula.
Suggested Position Size
Full Kelly fraction (raw): 12.41% · Applied after profile multiplier: 6.20%. If all 5 concurrent positions hit stop-loss, total risk is 31.01%. Expected monthly return is an estimate from the past 90-day average, not a guarantee.
Why Kelly?
The Kelly formula gives the optimal bet fraction that maximizes expected log-wealth growth: f* = (p × b − q) / b, where p is win probability, q = 1 − p, and b is average win / average loss. In practice full Kelly can eat a large chunk of capital during a single losing run, so real-world use prefers half-Kellyor quarter-Kelly.
- Conservative (¼ Kelly): max 3 concurrent, slow growth, low drawdown.
- Balanced (½ Kelly): max 5 concurrent, the textbook default.
- Aggressive (¾ Kelly): max 8 concurrent, higher return but deeper drawdowns.
Important Notes
- This calculator is not investment advice, educational only.
- The smaller the sample, the less reliable the Kelly recommendation. ByKaranteli uses the 90-day window.
- Derivatives + leverage risk: losing all capital is possible. Never exceed max concurrent limit.
- Placing orders is your responsibility; ByKaranteli does not auto-trade.
Not investment advice. Kelly is a statistical tool; past statistics lose validity as market conditions change.